Spearman CapitalSpearman Capital
Trends and markers

The data we watch.

A defined set of macro, market, housing, migration and city markers. The same signals inform our capital deployment, sector weightings and pricing discipline.

Refreshed 2026-10-1670 markers trackedPublic sources, dated per value
Markers

The data we watch

70 markers in 9 groups. Each row shows the latest public reading with its date, then the change over 1, 5, 10 and 30 years (the earlier reading sits under each change). Rates change in percentage points; everything else in percent. The marker name links to its source. A cell reads n/a where the series does not reach back that far; the note says why.

Refreshed Oct 16, 2026
Rates and inflation

Cost of capital.

Policy rates, reference benchmarks and price indices.

MarkerLatest1 yr5 yr10 yr30 yr
Inflation (CPI, year over year)3.72%Sep 1, 2026+0.69 pts3.02%-1.63 pts5.35%+2.17 pts1.55%+0.71 pts3.00%
Fed funds rate (effective)3.75%Sep 1, 2026-0.47 pts4.22%+3.67 pts0.08%+3.35 pts0.40%-1.55 pts5.30%
Prime rate6.87%Sep 1, 2026-0.51 pts7.38%+3.62 pts3.25%+3.37 pts3.50%-1.38 pts8.25%
SOFR (replaced LIBOR)
LIBOR ceased on 30 June 2023; SOFR is its replacement benchmark (series starts 2018, so 10- and 30-year columns are n/a).
3.88%Oct 14, 2026-0.31 pts4.19%+3.83 pts0.05%n/an/a
90-day T-bill3.94%Sep 1, 2026+0.02 pts3.92%+3.90 pts0.04%+3.65 pts0.29%-1.15 pts5.09%
1-year Treasury4.37%Sep 1, 2026+0.71 pts3.66%+4.29 pts0.08%+3.78 pts0.59%-1.46 pts5.83%
10-year Treasury4.99%Sep 1, 2026+0.87 pts4.12%+3.62 pts1.37%+3.36 pts1.63%-1.84 pts6.83%
US CPI (index)336.30Sep 1, 2026+3.72%324.25+22.78%273.91+39.44%241.18+113.25%157.70
US PPI (index)287.93Aug 1, 2026+9.85%262.11+23.35%233.42+54.30%186.60+124.42%128.30
Commodities, dollar, inputs

Real assets, real prices.

Oil, gold, the dollar, trade balance and building inputs.

MarkerLatest1 yr5 yr10 yr30 yr
Oil (WTI)$101.91Oct 14, 2026+71.22%$59.52+25.15%$81.43+102.40%$50.35+299.65%$25.50
Gold
Futures series begins in 2000, so the 30-year column is n/a.
$4,196.50Oct 16, 2026+5.00%$3,996.50+135.24%$1,783.90+230.04%$1,271.50n/a
US dollar index101.95Oct 16, 2026+2.15%99.80+8.31%94.12+3.55%98.45+16.60%87.43
US trade balance (goods and services)
Negative = deficit; the change columns compare deficit sizes.
$-105,572MAug 1, 2026+77.01%$-59,642M+45.77%$-72,423M+173.34%$-38,623M+919.33%$-10,357M
Lumber and wood products (PPI)
The sheet quoted $ per thousand board feet; the futures contract behind that quote was retired in 2023, so the producer price index is used.
282.34Sep 1, 2026+8.70%259.75+2.53%275.38+37.46%205.40+48.91%189.60
Construction labor cost ($/hour)
Series begins 2006, so the 30-year column is n/a.
$41.69Sep 1, 2026+4.20%$40.01+25.31%$33.27+47.78%$28.21n/a
Construction materials (PPI)375.91Aug 1, 2026+10.09%341.46+20.07%313.08+74.03%216.00+167.74%140.40
Equities

US and global indices.

Public market benchmarks we reference for comps and sentiment.

MarkerLatest1 yr5 yr10 yr30 yr
S&P 500SPX7,744.06Oct 15, 2026+13.21%6,840.20+68.15%4,605.38+264.23%2,126.15+998.03%705.27
NASDAQ CompositeIXIC26,713.03Oct 15, 2026+12.59%23,724.96+72.36%15,498.39+414.79%5,189.14+2,086.89%1,221.51
Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA52,177.69Oct 15, 2026+9.70%47,562.87+45.67%35,819.56+187.60%18,142.42+765.39%6,029.38
FTSE 100 (UK)FTSE10,840.35Oct 15, 2026+11.56%9,717.30+49.78%7,237.60+55.88%6,954.20+172.43%3,979.10
DAX (Germany)DAX25,382.62Oct 15, 2026+5.94%23,958.30+61.79%15,688.77+138.00%10,665.01+850.16%2,671.40
Shanghai CompositeSHCOMP3,716.44Oct 16, 2026-6.03%3,954.79+4.77%3,547.34+19.87%3,100.49n/a
Nikkei 225 (Japan)N22565,624.79Oct 16, 2026+25.21%52,411.34+127.13%28,892.69+276.61%17,425.02+220.64%20,466.86
Hang Seng (Hong Kong)HSI24,295.71Oct 16, 2026-6.22%25,906.65-4.26%25,377.24+5.94%22,934.54+94.71%12,477.60
US macro

Output, jobs, people, income.

Core US indicators, including population growth and incomes.

MarkerLatest1 yr5 yr10 yr30 yr
US GDP (annual rate)$32,563.03BApr 1, 2026+6.31%$30,630.17B+38.82%$23,456.71B+74.02%$18,711.70B+305.37%$8,032.84B
US unemployment4.20%Sep 1, 2026-0.20 pts4.40%-0.50 pts4.70%-0.80 pts5.00%-1.00 pts5.20%
Labor force participation61.80%Sep 1, 2026-0.70 pts62.50%+0.10 pts61.70%-1.10 pts62.90%-5.10 pts66.90%
US job growth (payrolls, year over year)0.31%Sep 1, 2026-0.09 pts0.40%-3.92 pts4.23%-1.58 pts1.89%-1.83 pts2.14%
US industrial production (year over year)1.42%Aug 1, 2026+0.23 pts1.19%-2.84 pts4.26%+3.58 pts-2.16%-3.30 pts4.72%
US population growth (year over year)0.24%Aug 1, 2026-0.25 pts0.49%+0.03 pts0.21%-0.53 pts0.77%-0.93 pts1.17%
US per-capita personal income$79,860Apr 1, 2026+4.09%$76,724+25.74%$63,511+64.04%$48,682+223.90%$24,656
US median household income$87,460Jan 1, 2025+5.17%$83,160+28.60%$68,010+54.74%$56,520+156.63%$34,080
US mean (average) household income
Mean household income for calendar 2025 (standard error $823); the median for the same year is $87,460 (FRED row above). Published 15 September 2026.
$126,700Dec 31, 2025n/an/an/an/a
Private capital and small business

Private equity and SMB.

Small-business count and share of GDP, private-equity deployment and dry powder, IPO activity.

MarkerLatest1 yr5 yr10 yr30 yr
Number of US small businesses
2025 profile; the 2021 sheet reading was 30.7M (2020 profile). Small businesses hold close to 46% of private-sector employment.
36.2MOct 1, 2025n/an/an/an/a
Small businesses as % of US GDP
The latest measured year is 2014 (48.0% in 1998); Advocacy still cites 43.5% in its February 2026 FAQ. No newer official measurement exists.
43.50%Dec 31, 2014n/an/an/an/a
Average small-business yearly revenue
No official public source publishes an average revenue per small business; the sheet's figure had no source. Left n/a rather than invented.
n/an/an/an/an/a
US private equity deal value (year)
9,019 deals in 2025; deal value up 36.3% on 2024 (PitchBook). The sheet's 2019 reading was $301.3B.
$1,155.50BDec 31, 2025+36.30%n/an/an/a
US private equity dry powder
"A rounding error short of $1.1 trillion" through Q1 2025, the highest uncalled capital recorded; 29.8% of AUM (10-year average 35.5%). Dry-powder data lag six months.
$1,100.00BMar 31, 2025n/an/an/an/a
US IPOs priced, year to date
116 IPOs priced in 2026 to date, 33.7% fewer than the same point of 2025; total proceeds $147.8B (+361.4%), lifted by SK hynix's $26.5B US offering.
116Oct 15, 2026-33.70%n/an/an/a
Average US IPO size, year to date
$147.8B of proceeds over 116 IPOs; one $26.5B listing skews the average.
$1,274MOct 15, 2026n/an/an/an/a
Mortgage and lending

Fixed, adjustable and distress.

Consumer lending benchmarks and distress.

MarkerLatest1 yr5 yr10 yr30 yr
30-year fixed mortgage (Freddie Mac)7.40%Oct 15, 2026+1.10 pts6.30%+4.35 pts3.05%+3.93 pts3.47%-0.46 pts7.86%
15-year fixed mortgage (Freddie Mac)6.71%Oct 15, 2026+1.18 pts5.53%+4.41 pts2.30%+3.95 pts2.76%-0.67 pts7.38%
Single-family mortgage delinquency rate1.86%Apr 1, 2026+0.08 pts1.78%-0.61 pts2.47%-2.72 pts4.58%-0.40 pts2.26%
Adjustable-rate mortgage (7/6 SOFR ARM)
Freddie Mac stopped publishing ARM rates in November 2022, so the sheet's 1-, 3-, 5-, 7- and 10-year ARM rows have no official successor; one market ARM reading is shown. FHA-specific rates are not published by a public agency and were dropped.
6.79%Oct 15, 2026n/an/an/an/a
Eviction filings (tracked sites, year)
1.23M cases across the 10 states and 38 cities Eviction Lab tracks (1.26M in 2024), 3.2% below the post-pandemic average; average filing rate 8.0% of renter households. The sheet's 'eviction rate' row had no source.
1.23MDec 31, 2025-2.40%n/an/an/a
Housing and real estate

Price, supply, demand, rent.

Residential market depth and pricing, nationally.

MarkerLatest1 yr5 yr10 yr30 yr
US median home sales price$410,700Apr 1, 2026-1.30%$416,100+11.66%$367,800+34.22%$306,000+193.57%$139,900
US average home sales price$502,700Apr 1, 2026-2.43%$515,200+17.29%$428,600+40.46%$357,900+202.83%$166,000
US construction spending (annual rate)$2,203,129MAug 1, 2026-1.73%$2,242,024M+32.29%$1,665,413M+80.40%$1,221,250M+264.78%$603,959M
Existing-home inventory
FRED republishes only the latest 12 months of this NAR series, so the 5-, 10- and 30-year columns are n/a.
3,990,000MSep 1, 2026-2.21%4,080,000Mn/an/an/a
Months of supply (new homes)8.5 monthsAug 1, 2026+0.00%8.5 months+28.79%6.6 months+70.00%5 months+70.00%5 months
Median days on market
Series begins 2016, so the 10- and 30-year columns are n/a.
61 daysSep 1, 2026-1.61%62 days+48.78%41 days-14.08%71 daysn/a
US housing starts (annual rate)1,275MAug 1, 2026-1.24%1,291M-20.11%1,596M+8.88%1,171M-18.11%1,557M
US typical rent, all homes (Zillow ZORI)
Series begins 2015, so the 30-year column is n/a.
$1,931.94Sep 30, 2026+2.70%$1,881.17+21.49%$1,590.17+57.74%$1,224.74n/a
US typical rent, multifamily (Zillow ZORI)
Series begins 2015, so the 30-year column is n/a.
$1,762.15Sep 30, 2026+2.21%$1,724.08+17.35%$1,501.65+44.83%$1,216.68n/a
US typical condo value (Zillow ZHVI)$344,989.69Sep 30, 2026-0.13%$345,439.88+13.87%$302,965.51+60.10%$215,489.39n/a
Public homebuilders

The big three.

Public homebuilder stocks tracked as proxies for housing sentiment.

MarkerLatest1 yr5 yr10 yr30 yr
D.R. HortonDHI$139.55Oct 15, 2026-6.39%$149.08+56.32%$89.27+384.04%$28.83+5,450.95%$2.51
LennarLEN$77.69Oct 15, 2026-37.23%$123.77-19.69%$96.74+95.77%$39.68+633.65%$10.59
PulteGroupPHM$112.99Oct 15, 2026-5.74%$119.87+135.00%$48.08+507.47%$18.60+3,311.02%$3.31
Top REITs

Real estate, by the tape.

Selected REITs across net lease, healthcare, industrial, storage, towers and data centers.

MarkerLatest1 yr5 yr10 yr30 yr
SafeholdSAFE$11.55Oct 15, 2026-19.96%$14.43-90.60%$122.86-78.68%$54.18-76.56%$49.28
Universal Health RealtyUHT$38.19Oct 15, 2026-0.08%$38.22-32.96%$56.97-34.94%$58.70+99.69%$19.13
Essential Properties RealtyEPRT$25.96Oct 15, 2026-13.12%$29.88-12.86%$29.79n/an/a
HA Sustainable Infrastructure (Hannon Armstrong)HASI$36.80Oct 15, 2026+32.80%$27.71-39.07%$60.40+60.98%$22.86n/a
Innovative Industrial PropertiesIIPR$53.20Oct 15, 2026+6.08%$50.15-79.78%$263.09n/an/a
EquinixEQIX$996.26Oct 15, 2026+17.76%$846.01+19.02%$837.07+178.85%$357.28n/a
Digital RealtyDLR$174.47Oct 15, 2026+2.38%$170.41+10.56%$157.81+86.74%$93.43n/a
American TowerAMT$181.36Oct 15, 2026+1.33%$178.98-35.68%$281.97+54.76%$117.19n/a
SBA CommunicationsSBAC$183.72Oct 15, 2026-4.05%$191.48-46.80%$345.33+62.18%$113.28n/a
PrologisPLD$126.94Oct 15, 2026+2.30%$124.09-12.43%$144.96+143.37%$52.16n/a
Public StoragePSA$295.33Oct 15, 2026+6.02%$278.56-11.09%$332.18+38.19%$213.72+1,184.04%$23
Extra Space StorageEXR$137.69Oct 15, 2026+3.11%$133.54-30.24%$197.37+88.23%$73.15n/a
Migration

Where people are moving

The 2025 reports from U-Haul, United Van Lines and North American Van Lines. Lists read top to bottom.

U-Haul: top 25 growth metros, 2025
  1. Dallas, TX
  2. Houston, TX
  3. Austin, TX
  4. Charlotte, NC
  5. Phoenix, AZ
  6. Nashville, TN
  7. Charleston, SC
  8. Raleigh, NC
  9. Atlanta, GA
  10. Brownsville and McAllen, TX
  11. Lakeland, FL
  12. Boise, ID
  13. Palm Bay, FL
  14. Minneapolis, MN
  15. Spokane, WA
  16. San Diego, CA
  17. San Francisco, CA
  18. Jacksonville, FL
  19. Port St. Lucie, FL
  20. Denver, CO
  21. San Antonio, TX
  22. Bend, OR
  23. College Station, TX
  24. Miami, FL
  25. Philadelphia, PA
U-Haul: top 25 growth cities
  1. Ocala, FL
  2. North Port, FL
  3. Myrtle Beach, SC
  4. Kissimmee, FL
  5. Clermont, FL
  6. McKinney, TX
  7. Fort Lauderdale, FL
  8. St. Augustine, FL
  9. Daytona Beach, FL
  10. Panama City, FL
  11. Meridian, ID
  12. North Fort Myers, FL
  13. Fredericksburg, VA
  14. Seguin, TX
  15. New Braunfels, TX
  16. Leesburg, FL
  17. Auburn, AL
  18. Sarasota, FL
  19. St. Cloud, FL
  20. Conroe, TX
  21. Sparks, NV
  22. Garner, NC
  23. Nampa, ID
  24. Cookeville, TN
  25. Lacey, WA

Growth = net gain of one-way U-Haul trucks arriving versus leaving. Texas metros take the top three; Florida has eight of the top ten cities.

United Van Lines: top inbound states
  1. Oregon (65%)
  2. West Virginia (62%)
  3. South Carolina (61%)
  4. Delaware
  5. Minnesota
  6. Idaho
  7. North Carolina
  8. Arkansas
  9. Alabama
  10. Nevada
Top outbound states
  1. New Jersey (62%)
  2. New York (58%)
  3. California (58%)
  4. North Dakota
  5. Colorado
  6. Mississippi
  7. Massachusetts
Top inbound metros
  • Eugene-Springfield, OR (85%)
  • Wilmington, NC (83%)
  • Dover, DE (79%)
Top outbound metros
  • Hagerstown, MD (88%)
  • Nassau-Suffolk, NY (78%)
  • Pueblo, CO (74%)

Share of a state's United moves that were inbound or outbound; states with fewer than 250 moves excluded. Texas and Florida now read as balanced.

North American Van Lines
Top inbound states
  1. Idaho (71%)
  2. South Carolina (63%)
  3. North Carolina (62%)
  4. Tennessee (60%)
  5. Florida (51%)
Top outbound states
  1. California (60%)
  2. New Jersey (57%)
  3. Illinois (56%)
  4. Pennsylvania (55%)
  5. Texas (51%)
Top inbound cities
  1. Charlotte, NC
  2. Nashville, TN
  3. Dallas, TX
  4. Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
  5. Boise, ID
Top outbound cities
  1. Los Angeles, CA
  2. San Diego, CA
  3. Houston, TX
  4. Chicago, IL
  5. Washington, DC

Sources: U-Haul Growth Index: Top U.S. Growth Metros and Cities of 2025 (released 6 January 2026) · United Van Lines, 2025 National Movers Study (released 29 December 2025) · North American Van Lines, 2025 Moving Migration Report (released 18 December 2025)

Cities

Population, jobs, income and housing by metro

Latest public readings per metro area (Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Realtor.com and Zillow through FRED and Zillow Research; Census population estimates). Each cell shows the value, its date and the 1-year change; hover a value for its source. Dallas and Fort Worth share one metro area.

MetroPopulation growth (yr)UnemploymentIncome per personTypical home valueMedian list priceTypical rentDays on marketActive listings
Houston, TX1.63%Jul 1, 20255.00%Aug 1, 2026+0.10 pts$72,453Jan 1, 2023+5.30%$302,831.60Sep 30, 2026-1.82%$353,995Sep 1, 2026-1.65%$1,637.61Sep 30, 2026+0.08%55 daysSep 1, 2026-1.79%35,898Sep 1, 2026+5.30%
Dallas-Fort Worth, TX1.48%Jul 1, 20254.40%Aug 1, 2026+0.10 pts$74,165Jan 1, 2023+4.62%$358,242.35Sep 30, 2026-2.05%$422,495Sep 1, 2026-0.59%$1,659.31Sep 30, 2026+0.75%62 daysSep 1, 2026-1.59%29,364Sep 1, 2026-2.35%
Austin, TX2.10%Jul 1, 20253.90%Aug 1, 2026+0.10 pts$80,471Jan 1, 2023+5.88%$414,273.44Sep 30, 2026-4.31%$446,450Sep 1, 2026-9.81%$1,603.28Sep 30, 2026+0.73%80 daysSep 1, 2026+1.27%12,083Sep 1, 2026+1.45%
San Antonio, TX1.38%Jul 1, 20254.50%Aug 1, 2026+0.20 pts$59,477Jan 1, 2023+5.10%$273,806.27Sep 30, 2026-1.90%$320,374Sep 1, 2026-2.92%$1,415.45Sep 30, 2026-0.74%71 daysSep 1, 2026-2.74%14,105Sep 1, 2026+5.96%
Phoenix, AZ1.14%Jul 1, 20254.90%Aug 1, 2026+0.60 pts$66,365Jan 1, 2023+6.09%$441,097.15Sep 30, 2026-1.07%$475,000Sep 1, 2026-4.81%$1,720.26Sep 30, 2026+1.04%62 daysSep 1, 2026-4.62%18,437Sep 1, 2026+7.54%
Jacksonville, FL1.49%Jul 1, 2025n/an/a$350,573.97Sep 30, 2026-0.09%$379,000Sep 1, 2026-3.93%$1,679.58Sep 30, 2026+2.19%66 daysSep 1, 2026-12.00%7,799Sep 1, 2026-13.68%
San Diego, CA-0.16%Jul 1, 20254.90%Aug 1, 2026-0.20 pts$79,122Jan 1, 2023+6.24%$926,960.73Sep 30, 2026+0.81%$888,450Sep 1, 2026-6.28%$2,967.23Sep 30, 2026+2.16%46 daysSep 1, 2026-6.12%5,749Sep 1, 2026-1.49%
San Jose, CA0.38%Jul 1, 20254.30%Aug 1, 2026-0.40 pts$148,036Jan 1, 2023+5.81%$1,523,615.44Sep 30, 2026+0.24%$1,388,472Sep 1, 2026+1.74%$3,812.50Sep 30, 2026+8.35%35 daysSep 1, 2026-2.78%2,112Sep 1, 2026+17.46%
Los Angeles, CA-0.48%Jul 1, 20254.80%Aug 1, 2026-1.00 ptsn/a$950,020.04Sep 30, 2026+1.26%$1,034,500Sep 1, 2026-5.87%$2,928.85Sep 30, 2026+1.77%55 daysSep 1, 2026-3.51%20,130Sep 1, 2026+4.18%
Philadelphia, PA0.25%Jul 1, 20254.40%Aug 1, 2026-1.00 pts$78,761Jan 1, 2023+5.74%$386,048.03Sep 30, 2026+2.50%$374,950Sep 1, 2026-2.59%$1,903.08Sep 30, 2026+3.32%49 daysSep 1, 2026+8.89%13,756Sep 1, 2026+14.72%
Chicago, IL0.24%Jul 1, 20255.20%Aug 1, 2026+0.70 pts$77,429Jan 1, 2023+5.61%$355,649.78Sep 30, 2026+5.03%$389,450Sep 1, 2026+4.61%$2,162.89Sep 30, 2026+4.68%36 daysSep 1, 2026-5.26%15,929Sep 1, 2026-5.34%
New York, NY0.16%Jul 1, 20254.70%Aug 1, 2026-0.70 pts$91,448Jan 1, 2023+6.26%$730,948.98Sep 30, 2026+4.92%$742,000Sep 1, 2026-2.30%$3,545.65Sep 30, 2026+4.18%56 daysSep 1, 2026-3.45%38,158Sep 1, 2026+6.33%
The watch list (in our marketing order)
Texas: Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, Austin, El Paso, Round Rock, Midland, College Station
Florida: Jacksonville, Miami, Orlando, Cape Coral / Fort Myers / Lehigh Acres, Tampa and St Petersburg, Port Saint Lucie, Boynton Beach, Tallahassee, West Palm Beach
North Carolina: Charlotte / Concord, Raleigh, Asheville, Chapel Hill, Durham, Greenville, Wilmington
South Carolina: Charleston / North Charleston / Mount Pleasant, Myrtle Beach
Tennessee: Nashville, Murfreesboro, Knoxville
Utah: Salt Lake City / Orem / Provo
Colorado: Denver
Ohio: Columbus
Indiana: Indianapolis
Oklahoma: Oklahoma City
Idaho: Boise / Meridian / Nampa
Oregon: Bend
Washington: Seattle, Spokane
Nevada: Las Vegas / Enterprise / Henderson / Spring Valley
Arizona: Phoenix / Tempe / Scottsdale
Pennsylvania: Philadelphia
California: Los Angeles, San Diego, San Jose (south bay), San Francisco, Indio, Santa Clarita
District of Columbia: Washington
Massachusetts: Boston
Illinois: Chicago
Michigan: Detroit
New York: New York City
What every city tab tracks
Economy and people: GDP, Job growth, Population growth, Unemployment, Labor participation, Average income, Average household income, Median wages
Housing: Median home price, Average home price, Median home rent, Average house rent, Median apartment rent, Average apartment rent, Average days on market, Months of inventory, Total home inventory, Housing starts, Condo median price
Office: Occupancy, Median rent, Building sales, Building starts, Cap rates, Average asset age
Multifamily: Occupancy, Median rent, Sales, Starts, Cap rates, Average age
Self storage: Occupancy, Median rent, Sales, Starts, Cap rates, Average asset age
Warehouse: Occupancy, Median rent, Building sales, Starts, Cap rates, Average asset age
Public sources we keep on the sheet
Spearman Capital

Direct investment in business acquisitions, startup growth, real estate, energy, infrastructure, lending, and more.

512 W MLK Jr Blvd, Suite 107
Austin, TX 78701
877-812-1215
info@spearmancapital.com

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